US General Election Projection: Trump wins (May 18)

Written 18 May 2016

Disclaimer: I endorse no candidate for president. 

Although the demographics of the country will certainly help Hillary Clinton win the general election if it were held today, the reality is that projections do not work that way. One has to take into account different variables which could affect the outcome, and I see three scenarios which would allow Trump to boot Hillary.

I would put the likelihood of at least one of these events happening at 60%, giving Trump a 60% chance of winning. Therefore, I see the electoral map looking like this:

Trump will win many of the swing states with large white, working-class populations, and manage to hold on to the South (although Georgia looks set to become a swing state according to polls). I think that a large number (about half) of Bernie Sanders supporters will shift to Trump. Those Republicans which were considering for Hillary will likely switch back to Trump. Hillary will capture states with large Mexican-origin populations (including Illinois), but not Florida, whose Hispanics are mostly Cuban and Puerto Rican.

If none of the events described above seem possible, I will revise my projection. For now, I project that Donald Trump will become the next President of the United States of America.

Note that I correctly predicted the electoral map in 2012 months in advance.