Why I think Biden will win the 2020 elections
Written 28 July 2020
If you follow my blogging history, you’ll see that I predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. If you look at my social media, you’ll see that I am no fan of Biden and encouraged people to not vote for him in November. I say that to show that I am making my prediction from a purely analytical perspective. There are two main factors why I believe Joe Biden will win the 2020 presidential election.
This one will explain a large part of the reason why Biden will win. The pandemic not only brings its own public health problems, but it creates a host of other issues, such as economic and social unrest. We have already seen manifestations of this in recent months and I don’t foresee this ending by November. As is standard in public opinion, economic woes are blamed on the president, whether or not he is responsible.
In addition, his handling of the pandemic has come under severe criticism, even among some of his core supporters, meaning that people will see a plausible reason to blame him for the economic conditions as well. While the social unrest may help his “law and order” rhetoric, it will only help him with his base. The swing voters will more likely be turned off by his heavy-handed response.
It is certainly possible, however, that a vaccine will come out in October and turn the economy around. Nevertheless, the damage has been done and the death toll will likely exceed 200,000, a permanent stain on Trump’s presidency. Furthermore, the second, more important factor, will be his ultimate undoing.
Joe Biden leaves much to be desired. He is likely senile and he is inactive. He has upset a lot of young voters who were rooting for Bernie Sanders and anytime he makes a public appearance, he gaffes. Nevertheless, his favorable ratings are much better than Clinton’s in 2016, especially among white working class voters. This alone will do nothing to help Biden, though. Instead, Biden will ironically be helped by Trump more than anybody else. The core reason Clinton lost in 2016 was that she failed to mobilize the Democratic base while Trump succeeded in mobilizing the Republican base. This time around, Trump is less likely to mobilize his base and instead he will be successful in mobilizing the Democratic base.
Trump is a cash cow for Democrats and a whole industry has arisen to oppose him. Even when the economy was doing well, he lost control of the House and several key state legislatures, such as Virginia’s. Bear in mind that this is despite the heavy gerrymandering that has been engineered to maintain Republican majorities. It is more than likely that the same will happen again this year, and the Democratic base will be more motivated than ever due to the pandemic and the George Floyd protests. Even young Gen-Z Bernie supporters will be motivated to vote for Biden, not because they like Biden, but because they despise Trump.
The whole country will be on the lookout for election interference and “fake news” stories, and their effect will be minimal this year. Furthermore, Democrats are so traumatized that the polls were “wrong” in 2016 that they will be extra careful to make sure they don’t let their guard down. It is because of this reason that I am very doubtful of Trump’s reelection chances.
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Those reasons are the main two that convince me into saying that Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States. The chances of Biden winning are at about 80% in my estimation. While Trump could have engineered some sort of massive comeback early on during the pandemic, that opportunity has faded. The dead have been and still are being buried and the economy and society are heavily injured. The damage has been done and Trump’s reelection chances have thus been undone. Any efforts to stymie this trend will be seen as too little too late by the general public at best and cynical at worst.
I do not endorse or oppose any candidate for president.